Previewing USC at Notre Dame
I'll be live from Notre Dame Stadium
I will be live from South Bend, Indiana Saturday evening for a Top 25 matchup between #10 USC and #21 Notre Dame. The 94th matchup of this battle for the Jeweled Shillelagh. No other rivalry in college football accounts for more players selected in the NFL draft (ND: 546 - USC: 530). The Irish lead the all-time series 48-37-5. Notre Dame had won 4 in a row from 2017 to 2021. In a battle of first-year coaches in 2022, the Trojans took back control with a 38-27 victory at the Coliseum.
After a second loss in three weeks against Louisville this past week, Notre Dame is out of the playoff race. They will be looking to play spoiler against USC. For USC, the matchup at Notre Dame is the start of a daunting gauntlet. Including Notre Dame, 5 of USC’s next 6 matchups are against teams presently ranked in the top 25. Reigning Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams continues to dazzle. The Trojan defense, not so much. We’ll see if USC’s high-flying offense can survive what looks to be a cool and rainy evening at Notre Dame Stadium.
Statistical Profiles
The philosophical differences between the two schools, in terms of coaching and overall program building is striking.
USC is built around quarterback Caleb Williams and surrounding him with explosive skill talent. Notre Dame is built on having a good offensive line, tight ends, and bruising running backs. Notre Dame did dip into the transfer portal when it grabbed Sam Hartman from Wake Forest. Early results were promising, but the past three games have been a disappointment.
USC’s defensive philosophy is…missing. I’m kidding. Kind of. USC made an effort to improve along the defensive line in the offseason and they did by bringing in legit talent along the defensive line: Bear Alexander (Georgia), Kyronn Barrs (Arizona), and Anthony Lucas (Texas A&M). In particular, Bear has been a force, but it has not been enough to generate significant improvement for the defense. On the other hand, Notre Dame has been mostly sound on defense. The Louisville game got away from them late, but I am chalking that up to getting worn out after playing in three straight slugfests without a lot of offensive support.
USC’s Statistical Rankings
Through five weeks, USC’s offense ranks 3rd overall in EPA per play. SP+ has them ranked as the #1 offense in the country, with a 45.1 rating, which is a rating a little below where the #1 offense usually ranks and nearly three points behind where USC finished 2022. On a more basic level, USC leads the country in scoring with 51.8 points per game, and is second in the country in yards per play at 8.2. It’s safe to say this offense can cook.
Defensively, it’s a whole different story.
USC ranks 62nd defensively in overall EPA per play. This is right in line with SP+, which ranks USC 61st in the country, with a 25.8 rating. For reference, Washington has the second worst defensive profile in the top 10 and they rank 26th in SP+ with a 20.8 rating. Again, the advanced statistics are consistent with USC’s standard metrics. The Trojans allow 27.0 points per game (64th) and 5.4 yards per play (62nd). No matter how you slice it, USC continues to field a bad defense. Lincoln Riley has not shown he is willing to get serious about this side of the ball.
Notre Dame’s Statistical Rankings
The advanced statistics really like Notre Dame. The early season blowouts against Navy, Tennessee State, NC State, and Central Michigan propped up a lot of their offensive numbers. Through five weeks, EPA still has Notre Dame as a top 5 offense overall. I expect that number will drop once week 6 is indexed. SP+ has a more measured approach, having Notre Dame ranked as the 24th best offense in the country. For the season, Notre Dame is averaging 30.5 points per game, although only 18.3 in the last three. The yards per play is also trending downwards as the Irish are sitting at 22nd in the country with a 6.5 ypp season-long average, but only 5.2 over the last three. For reference, 5.2 ypp ranks in the 80s. Notre Dame is trending the wrong way on offense. Facing Ohio State and a resurgent Duke defense in back to back weeks will lead to an inveitable dip, but the continued decline against Louisville was concerning.
On defense, Notre Dame ranks 14th in the country in overall EPA. SP+ likes Notre Dame even more, ranking them 10th in the country. The Irish allow only 18 points per game and 4.6 yards per play which both rank in the top 20 across the country. Notre Dame’s defense is not its problem. It has been a stout group. Notre Dame does not have a fearsome pass rush, but the defensive line is good against the run and can generate enough pressure to allow its improved secondary to show off its coverage abilities.
Players To Know
Enough about the numbers. Who are the guys we are going to be booing and cheering on Saturday.
USC’s Key Players
#13 Caleb Williams - Quarterback. We all know who this is.
#0 Marshawn Lloyd - Running Back. USC’s most effective runner so far this season. He leads the team in rushing with 519 yards and averages 7.7 yards per carry. He is not much of a threat in the passing game, with only 5 catches through 6 games.
#16 Tahj Washington - Wide Receiver. Tied for the team lead with 21 catches. Leads the team in yardage with 456 yards.
#2 Brendan Rice - Wide Receiver. Tied for the team lead with 21 catches. Second on the team in yardage with 434 yards.
#1 Zachariah Branch - Wide Receiver/Returner. This is the potential showstopper of USC’s weapons. He is a freshman that has drawn Reggie Bush comparisons because he just looks faster than everyone else on the field. He has four touchdowns on the year, two receiving and two in the return game. If he gets the ball in the open field, watch out.
#90 Bear Alexander - Defensive Tackle. The most disruptive lineman USC has.
#13 Mason Cobb - Linebacker. USC’s third leading tackler (the top two are safeties, which is another indicator that the defense is no bueno).
#1 Domani Jackson - Cornerback. USC’s best player in the secondary. He missed the Arizona game.
#19 Jaylin Smith - Safety. Leads USC in tackles for the season. Notre Dame likes to use the tight ends. He will play a large role in defending against that attack.
Notre Dame’s Key Players
#10 Sam Hartman - Quarterback. The highly coveted transfer picked Notre Dame in the hopes that playing in a more traditional offense could boost his draft profile. Early results were promising. The last three weeks, less so.
#76 Joe Alt - Left Tackle. Joe Alt is projected to be a first round draft pick. He has been very good this season, but struggled against Louisville. He should feast against USC.
#7 Audric Estime - Running Back. A powerful runner with break away speed if he hits the open field. He looked a Heisman contender the first month of the season, but has been limited the past few games (noticing a trend?)
#88 Mitchell Evans - Tight End. Notre Dame’s leading pass catcher. He is Hartman’s favorite target. He scored his first touchdown of the season against Louisville.
#20 Benjamin Morrison - Cornerback. The sophomore is Notre Dame’s best player in the secondary. He held his own against Marvin Harrison and will need to step up against USC’s versatile receiving group.
#56 Howard Cross - Defensive End. The leading tackler on Notre Dame’s defense. He is a key cog to Notre Dame’s pass rush, which must emphasize gap integrity or Caleb Williams will burn them with his legs.
#27 JD Bertrand - Inside Linebacker. Notre Dame’s second leading tackler. Stopping USC’s ground game can make life a lot easier on a defense. Bertrand will need to flow sideline to sideline plugging gaps to make that happen.
#8 Marist Liufau - Linebacker. Notre Dame’s “coverage” linebacker, usually draws the role of covering slot receivers, tight ends, or backs leaking out. He is going to have a busy night and will need to be an effective utility defender.
Prediction
Notre Dame looked worn out on Saturday. USC has looked upset prone for three weeks now. Something has to give. I think USC’s awful defense is the perfect cure for Notre Dame’s ailing offense. Notre Dame is going to grind down USC’s defense. The Irish will shorten the game and keep Caleb Williams off the field, like they did against Ohio State, only this time they get the Trojans’ leaky defense and should be able to finsh drives. The Irish defense will do just enough to slow down USC’s offense.
USC falls from the ranks of the unbeaten. Notre Dame wins, 31-28.